Museum Audience Insight

TrendsWatch 2012 and Museums

What do yarnbombing, virtual Owney (our favorite taxidermied dog), and kimchi tacos all have in common with the city of Boston wanting to tax museums?  They are all featured in the Center for the Future of Museum's TendsWatch report for 2012!

 

Every year AAM's Center for the Future of Museums releases a report, highlighting one or more trends that museums will be confronting in the future . . . or even today.  This year, they identified seven trends to think about.  Some are threats to museums, while others are clearly opportunities.

We encourage you to download and read the report.  It is valuable food for thought as you think about what may affect your museum in the coming days, months, and years. 

 

Single Householders, Solo Visitors

Ah, the joys of living alone.  No one leaves a mess in the kitchen for you to clean up.  Sole possession of the remote control.  No acrimonious decorating choices.  And you can keep the thermostat where it keeps you comfortable. 

More and more Americans are experiencing these joys, as well as the various pitfalls, of living alone.  How do we know?  Since 1970 the number of single Americans living alone has tripled, going from about 10 million to over 30 million.  As a percentage of households, it has shot up from about 17% to over a quarter of US households.  That’s a lot of single people in their own apartments, condos, and houses. 

There are a lot of factors coming into play behind this trend, including:

• Rising levels of educational attainment, especially among women
• Longer postponement of marriage
• Increasing numbers of individuals who never marry
• Divorce rates
• Longer lives and improved health care leading to more seniors living alone (many of whom are widows and widowers)

But what does this mean for museums?  First off, given that many museum goers see museums as good places to go with friends and families, it means that there are a lot more people out there who don’t have an instant “date” to go to a museum with (whether spouse/partner, child, or roommate).  Museums as social occasions are more likely to be planned rather than spontaneous.  Individual museum memberships that include a few free guest passes will likely do well, as then singles have a greater incentive to visit, and bring a friend or family member.

It also means that museums may see increasing numbers of visitors who are alone.  Going to a museum by yourself may not seem as weird as, say, going to a fancy restaurant on your own, but for some the idea may still be intimidating.  Signaling that you are a welcoming, engaging, and safe place to visit alone will make such a visit more appealing. 

We think museums can be fantastic social outlets, engaging learning opportunities, as well as places of quiet and contemplation for all visitors.  But for single Americans living alone, museums can also become an anchor to their community and to others, and we think that is an opportunity too good to miss!

What do you think?  How does your museum welcome solo visitors?  Do you have any programs that work well?  To share, simply click on "comments" below.  (If you are reading this from your e-mail subscription to the blog, please go to http://reachadvisors.typepad.com to add a comment.)

Married Households With Children: A Smaller Piece of the Pie?

Families today come in all shapes and sizes.  Of course, a close reading of the historical record indicates that this has always been true, but over the past 50 years in the US, there has been a marked diversification in the ways our households are composed.  We’ll be looking at these household shifts over the next two posts.

First up, family households.  Back in 1960, at the height of the Baby Boom, one in two American households was composed of a married couple with minor children.  Since then, things have changed dramatically, as the following graphic shows:

Married Couples With Children No Longer Dominate US Households

Today, only one in five US households is composed of a married couple with minor children.

This is a big shift in our nation’s household composition, and has ramifications for museums of all types given that our client work leads us to estimate that 90% of core family audiences to museums are  families headed by a married couple.  (Keep in mind that we are talking about core family audiences, who go to museums often, not casual family visitors for whom museum visitation is a more sporadic activity.)

For children’s museums and science centers, whose primary markets are family audiences, this means that, as a percentage of the population, their target audience is shrinking.  (Depending on location, it may be shrinking in terms of raw numbers as well, especially in the Northeast.)  Diversifying to reach more of the one-out-of-three families not headed by a married couple may be necessary to keep up attendance numbers.

For other museums who primarily serve adult audiences, such as many history and art museums, well, we’re not letting you off the hook.  Even though the percentage of households comprised only of adults may be increasing, that is not excuse to scale back efforts to attract and engage families, as our previous research has shown that the amazing collections held at museums are extremely memorable for children who grow up into adults who love museums.  It is still crucial to reach children of all ages, and provide them with those experiences. 

What do you think?  To share, simply click on "comments" below.  (If you are reading this from your e-mail subscription to the blog, please go to http://reachadvisors.typepad.com to add a comment.)

Data Source:  US Census Bureau historical data

What Do Race and Ethnicity Have To Do With Future Museum Income? Everything!

Two weeks ago we discussed how the US population is moving inexorably to majority-minority status, where white, non-Hispanics will, eventually, make up less than 50% of the population.  And last week, we explored how, overall, incomes are decreasing, especially in those peak spending years of 25 to 54, making family budgets tight (along with the ramifications for admissions and philanthropy). 

This week, we are going to talk about both the shift towards a majority-minority population and the resultant ramifications for admissions and philanthropy. 

When we looked at the U.S. Census Bureau’s "2010 Annual Social and Economic Supplement," and focused in on the population projections, we noticed something huge:  the predicted shift in population size will result in a notable shift in spending. 

First, let’s look at the shift in population.  Between 2010 and 2020, we see once again a dramatic shift in the population towards minorities, and a net decrease in the number of whites among those that are 25 to 54.  Take a look:

 

            Peak spending years 25 to 54: Shift in population size

  

So, for museums, most of which have audiences that are primarily white, this means that, nationwide, the base of visitors, especially in that crucial family audience, is shrinking.  By 7%.  That’s a lot, and makes maintaining audiences, especially at children’s museums and science centers, a challenge without much deeper penetration of minority audiences.

But there is another way we need to look at this.  Money.  Fewer people mean less money to spend on lots of things, including museum visits and philanthropy.  Over the next ten years, aggregate earnings among whites 25 – 54 are projected to decrease by $258 billion – not because whites 25 to 54 are going to be making less money, just because there will be fewer of them.    

        Peak earning years 25 to 54: Aggregate earnings projections

 

 

Again, when most museums have member and donor basis that are primarily white, around 90%, this means that maintaining memberships and gifts in this age group will be a challenge unless there is significantly deeper penetration of minority audiences.  But that is where we also a nice silver lining.  Take a look at the increase in aggregate earnings from minorities.  It adds up to $346 billion - more than making up for the decrease in whites.  And, our projections are based on current aggregate earnings, so we’re likely projecting an excessively conservative gap.  Their aggregate earnings will go up as more Hispanics and other minorities increase their overall rates of educational attainment.

The question is – can museums effectively reach out to minority audiences, and bring relevant and transformative experiences to their lives?  Some museums have made great strides in reaching minorities, but we still see way too many whose core audiences are well below 10% minority.  Those who don’t effectively reach minorities may well see their audiences, and income, disappear as our population changes.

 

What is your museum doing to reach out to young minorities and their families?  We’d love to hear your best ideas and practices!  To share your thoughts, simply click on “comments” below.  (If you are reading this from your e-mail subscription to the blog, please go to our blog's website to add a comment.)

Household Income Growth (or Lack Thereof) and Museum Income

Over the next couple of posts, we’re going to be talking about income trends and how they may affect a museum’s earned income (particularly admissions and membership) and charitable gifts.  But we have two very different lenses to look through.

Today’s lens is income growth by age, taking a look at how different age groups have fared financially over the course of the last decade.  On the surface, at least until the Great Recession hit, it appeared as if most Americans were doing rather well and earning more than previous generation.  When we went deeper into the US Census's data to look at how inflation-adjusted median income changed from 2000 to 2009 for different age groups, however, we found that most Americans were worse off than their predecessors were:

If you take a look at, for example, people who are 35 to 44, the median income of householders in that age band in 2009 was about 8% less than the inflation-adjusted median income of the average householder in that same age band in 2000.  From that, you can assume that the typical 40-year-old householder in 2009 was making less than the typical 40-year-old householder in 2000.  Ditto for every ten-year-age band up to age 55.  Those who are 55 or older are doing better than those 55+ were ten years ago, and the really healthy income shift doesn’t show up until you are looking at those over 65. 

Additionally, we’ve also analyzed household debt burden by age, and we found a second financial constraint for young Americans: adults currently younger than 45 years of age have a much heavier debt burden in the form of mortgages than those over 60.  Why?  It’s all about whether they bought before the housing bubble expanded, or closer to the housing market peak prices.

Is it any wonder, then, that in our surveys we continually find that families are the audience segment constantly worried about their family budgets, are looking for high-value opportunities to entertain and engage their families, and are most likely to purchase memberships as a means of saving money?  Or that young adults under 30 are the ones most likely to think museums are just too expensive in the first place?  It should be no surprise because they all have less money to spend than the same age groups did 10 years ago. 

Looking ahead, what does this data mean for museums?

• That museums seeking to attract young adults have to be very much aware that discretionary income is tight, and even a modest admission fee may keep them away.
• Family audiences are constantly weighing what is the best value for their families.  Admission fees that total $50 or more become daunting very quickly for a family (never mind admission fees that exceed $100 for a family; and then there are the typical add-ons of food, shop purchases, etc.)  Memberships that provide reciprocal admissions at other sites, guest passes, free parking, and just a great bang for the buck do continue to be popular, however. 
• For adults under 55, philanthropy may be changing.  If incomes are down, commodity prices are increasing (among other things), the budget for charitable giving is likely shrinking, jeopardizing the pipeline of future donations as visitors, even members, become unaccustomed to making charitable gifts, and don’t have the money to do so anyway. 
• But older adults overall may be seeing more financial resilience, given their incomes, at least over the last decade, have increased.  There may be opportunities for growth in both earned income and charitable gifts with this segment (keeping in mind that not all Americans 55+ have seen income growth, just most!).

Next week, we are going to continue our examination of incomes, and take a look at aggregate earnings during the peak earning years by race and ethnicity. 

 

What do you think?  Do you see these changes in income dynamics in your generation?  How do you think it will affect your museum?  To share your thoughts, simply click on “comments” below.  (If you are reading this from your e-mail subscription to the blog, please go to our blog's website to add a comment.)

 

Interested in digging through the hard data yourself?  You can find loads of historical data on income at the US Census’s website, http://www.census.gov/hhes/www/income/data/historical/household/index.html.

A Majority-Minority Future, Here and Now

We have two graphics we want to share with you. 

This first one indicates states in blue that are already majority minority (<50% of the population is white, non-Hispanic), while the states in green are nearly there.

 

 

And now, let’s take a look at only the youth population (under 18):

 

 

What do you see? 

What we see is a country inexorably shifting to majority minority. 

Demographers may talk about when the United States will shift to being less than 50% white, non-Hispanic (most predict around 2040, give or take a year or two).  But in places, that future is here, now.  And if you only consider the youth population (under 18), it is here, now, in a lot more places.

We’ve talked about this shift before, most notably in the report “Museums and Society 2034:  Trends and Potential Futures” that we wrote for AAM’s Center for the Future of Museums.  And it is also true that this may not be as large an issue for an art museum in Maine than it is for a children’s museum in southern California.  But ultimately, all museums will have to understand that this shift is happening, and that in order to thrive in the future you must appeal to broader audiences, and not just the current white-majority core audience. 

Because not doing anything at all is just too risky. 

 

Over the next several weeks will be talking a great deal about shifts taking place in America, primarily based on the most recent releases from the US Census.  Coming up next will be a couple of posts on income dynamics.  But don’t forget this post because, as it turns out, the future of philanthropy in museums may be a lot less white as well. 

We’d love to hear how your museum is thinking and doing about reaching out to broader audiences, and minority youth populations in particular.  To share your thoughts, simply click on “comments” below.  (If you are reading this from your e-mail subscription to the blog, please go to our blog's website to add a comment.)

Fun Facts from the Census

Did you know:

• In the past decade, the average household saw a decrease in income, even before the Great Recession hit?  Households led by adults over 55 were the only segment that saw an increase.
• The population of Americans over age 65 is projected to increase by 36% by the end of this decade? 
• When we only look at residents under 18, already 7 states are majority-minority, and another 12 states will be soon?
• In the past 50 years, the percentage of households that are led by adults living alone has doubled, while the percentage of households comprised of nuclear families has plummeted?

Starting next week, we’ll begin picking apart these findings, along with many others, as we begin to explore what data from the US Census can tell us about museum audiences (and donors), now and in the future.  (We’ll be archiving these posts in the "Future of Museums" category for easy reference.)

Can’t wait to find out?  If you’ll be in Houston for the American Association of Museums annual meeting, we’ll be sharing our findings there at our private sessions:

Monday, May 23, 3:45 – 5:00 p.m.

or

Tuesday, May 24, 10:30 – 11:45 a.m.

Both sessions will take place in our hospitality suite at the Hilton Americas Hotel, just across the street from the convention center.  Simply e-mail Susie Wilkening at susie (at) reachadvisors (dot) com to reserve your spot!

Census 2010 and Museums: Much to Consider

I am such a geek when it comes to the US Census.  Last year, when that envelope came in the mail, I was way too excited.  I plucked it out of the mail pile first, ripped it open, and contentedly sat down with my pen and filled it out for our household.  Reports from my colleagues indicated they behaved similarly.  (You can call us Census Geeks if you want.)

Similarly, we get really excited when the US Census releases their findings.  Typically, my colleague Sally Johnstone picks up a release first, and e-mails us the summary, starting a discussion of the findings.  (And that is before we start pulling the raw numbers and working with them directly!)

Now, the US Census releases stuff all the time, but this year, we get bonus reports and data to work with as the big count known as the 2010 Decennial Census is released.

As we pick through these reports and data, we are finding lots of interesting trends that we believe will have a big impact on American society, our clients, and museums across the country.  Some of which are going to be challenges, and others that are opportunities, including changes in:

• Income dynamics
• Demographics
• Generational dynamics
• Household composition

Over the next several weeks we’ll be sharing some of what we find via this blog (and we'll be archiving them in the "Future of Museums" category for easy reference).

Can’t wait to find out?  If you’ll be in Houston for the American Association of Museums annual meeting, we’ll be sharing our findings there at our private sessions:

Monday, May 23, 3:45 – 5:00 p.m.

or

Tuesday, May 24, 10:30 – 11:45 a.m.

Both sessions will take place in our hospitality suite at the Hilton Americas Hotel, just across the street from the convention center.  Simply e-mail me at susie (at) reachadvisors (dot) com to reserve your spot!

-Susie

What US Census Data Tells Us (and What It Doesn't) . . .

In meetings and calls, we constantly hear people say how they are anxious to hear what Census 2010 will tell us.  The problem is that Census 2010 won't tell us too much more than we already know.  As you may recall when you filled it out, it was a rather short form that does little more than fulfill the Congressional mandate to get a count of the American population in an attempt to allocate government spending and representation more equitably.  It will provide a pretty accurate count of how many people live in the US, their ages, race, ethnicity, and household composition. 

The deeper stuff, however, is not found in Census 2010, but is found in other work the US Census Bureau conducts on a regular basis.  This includes the American Community Survey, an ongoing survey sent to a sample of the population that goes into much more detail than the decennial head count of Census 2010.  It also includes estimates of populations today, and projections for the future.  All of this other information is worth acting on now, rather than waiting for the release of Census 2010 data. 

 

This week brought us a wakeup call when we had to review some Census data on the Northeastern US.  You may have heard us in presentations talking about demographic shifts over the next 25 years, but here's an interesting snippet of what's highly likely to take place in the course of the current decade for one region of the country:

 

For the Northeastern US, between 2010 and 2020:

 

- The population of people between the ages of 15-24 will likely drop 11%

- The population of people between the ages of 40-49 will likely drop 17%

- The population of people between the ages of 60-74 will likely increase 29%

 

That kind of shift will unquestionably rock many markets.  The good news is that most museums aren't as dependent on audiences between the ages of 15-24 and 40-49 as other sectors are.  Even better news is that many museums are hugely dependent on audiences between the ages of 60-74.  But...will that generation have the same kind of expectations and relationship with museums as the current generation that dominates that age cohort?  If not, how will their expectations be different?  These are questions we are asking as we continue to examine museum audiences of today . . . and in the future.

 

Because future shifts in the population will have a big impact on museums, such as the continual shift to a majority-minority population, or the aging of America (such as in the example above, we’ll continue to share insights we glean from the work of the US Census Bureau. 

 

What do you think?  To share, simply click on “comments” below.  (If you are reading this from your e-mail subscription to the blog, please go to our blog's website to add a comment.)

School Field Trips Up in Smoke (Traveler's Rest isn't, though)

When I was in fourth grade, we were scheduled to go on a field trip to a historic house museum, Traveler’s Rest.  We gathered that morning in the school lunchroom, ready to board the buses.  The air crackled with excitement.  Someone had heard there was Indian blood on the stairs of the house from an attack!  The titillation of seeing that.

And then Miss Fannie Mae Baker, one of the teachers, came in and told us, in grave tones that, sadly, Traveler’s Rest had burned down just last night.  We were all devastated. 

Turns out Miss Baker was just teasing us (she is a lovely lady, by the way).  Traveler’s Rest is still calmly standing and welcoming visitors, mysterious red-stained stair and all (though the “Indian” story is pretty well debunked). 

I remember that trip fondly and vividly, and I bet at least some of my White County Elementary School classmates feel likewise. 

This morning, the Wall Street Journal ran an article about school field trips, sharing the excitement kids felt about taking hikes, going to plays, and visiting museums.  But, as the article continues, those trips are increasingly being cut as school budgets shrink.  Even free museums, with travel funds to give to schools, are seeing fewer bookings as schools cut back every incidental penny they can find. 

It is a shame, and could have long-term ramifications that will haunt museums for years.  Why?  Our preliminary research indicates about a quarter of Museum Advocates had seminal childhood memories of museums . . . from school field trips.  School field trips appear to be a critical pathway to lifelong learning for children who may not otherwise visit museums with their families.  These cuts shut out important experiences for children that can, ultimately, lead to a habit of learning, curiosity, and museum-going in adulthood . . . . and in future generations. 

We have posted on this subject before, and as we continue our research on Museum Advocates this winter, we will undoubtedly post again.  Bottom line, school field trips are important.

Do you have fond memories of childhood field trips?  How has your museum dealt with school budget cuts?  We would love to hear your thoughts.  Simply click on “comments” below to share your thoughts (and if you are reading this from your e-mail subscription, go to our blog to comment).

 -Susie