Museum Audience Insight

Married Households With Children: A Smaller Piece of the Pie?

Families today come in all shapes and sizes.  Of course, a close reading of the historical record indicates that this has always been true, but over the past 50 years in the US, there has been a marked diversification in the ways our households are composed.  We’ll be looking at these household shifts over the next two posts.

First up, family households.  Back in 1960, at the height of the Baby Boom, one in two American households was composed of a married couple with minor children.  Since then, things have changed dramatically, as the following graphic shows:

Married Couples With Children No Longer Dominate US Households

Today, only one in five US households is composed of a married couple with minor children.

This is a big shift in our nation’s household composition, and has ramifications for museums of all types given that our client work leads us to estimate that 90% of core family audiences to museums are  families headed by a married couple.  (Keep in mind that we are talking about core family audiences, who go to museums often, not casual family visitors for whom museum visitation is a more sporadic activity.)

For children’s museums and science centers, whose primary markets are family audiences, this means that, as a percentage of the population, their target audience is shrinking.  (Depending on location, it may be shrinking in terms of raw numbers as well, especially in the Northeast.)  Diversifying to reach more of the one-out-of-three families not headed by a married couple may be necessary to keep up attendance numbers.

For other museums who primarily serve adult audiences, such as many history and art museums, well, we’re not letting you off the hook.  Even though the percentage of households comprised only of adults may be increasing, that is not excuse to scale back efforts to attract and engage families, as our previous research has shown that the amazing collections held at museums are extremely memorable for children who grow up into adults who love museums.  It is still crucial to reach children of all ages, and provide them with those experiences. 

What do you think?  To share, simply click on "comments" below.  (If you are reading this from your e-mail subscription to the blog, please go to http://reachadvisors.typepad.com to add a comment.)

Data Source:  US Census Bureau historical data

What Do Race and Ethnicity Have To Do With Future Museum Income? Everything!

Two weeks ago we discussed how the US population is moving inexorably to majority-minority status, where white, non-Hispanics will, eventually, make up less than 50% of the population.  And last week, we explored how, overall, incomes are decreasing, especially in those peak spending years of 25 to 54, making family budgets tight (along with the ramifications for admissions and philanthropy). 

This week, we are going to talk about both the shift towards a majority-minority population and the resultant ramifications for admissions and philanthropy. 

When we looked at the U.S. Census Bureau’s "2010 Annual Social and Economic Supplement," and focused in on the population projections, we noticed something huge:  the predicted shift in population size will result in a notable shift in spending. 

First, let’s look at the shift in population.  Between 2010 and 2020, we see once again a dramatic shift in the population towards minorities, and a net decrease in the number of whites among those that are 25 to 54.  Take a look:

 

            Peak spending years 25 to 54: Shift in population size

  

So, for museums, most of which have audiences that are primarily white, this means that, nationwide, the base of visitors, especially in that crucial family audience, is shrinking.  By 7%.  That’s a lot, and makes maintaining audiences, especially at children’s museums and science centers, a challenge without much deeper penetration of minority audiences.

But there is another way we need to look at this.  Money.  Fewer people mean less money to spend on lots of things, including museum visits and philanthropy.  Over the next ten years, aggregate earnings among whites 25 – 54 are projected to decrease by $258 billion – not because whites 25 to 54 are going to be making less money, just because there will be fewer of them.    

        Peak earning years 25 to 54: Aggregate earnings projections

 

 

Again, when most museums have member and donor basis that are primarily white, around 90%, this means that maintaining memberships and gifts in this age group will be a challenge unless there is significantly deeper penetration of minority audiences.  But that is where we also a nice silver lining.  Take a look at the increase in aggregate earnings from minorities.  It adds up to $346 billion - more than making up for the decrease in whites.  And, our projections are based on current aggregate earnings, so we’re likely projecting an excessively conservative gap.  Their aggregate earnings will go up as more Hispanics and other minorities increase their overall rates of educational attainment.

The question is – can museums effectively reach out to minority audiences, and bring relevant and transformative experiences to their lives?  Some museums have made great strides in reaching minorities, but we still see way too many whose core audiences are well below 10% minority.  Those who don’t effectively reach minorities may well see their audiences, and income, disappear as our population changes.

 

What is your museum doing to reach out to young minorities and their families?  We’d love to hear your best ideas and practices!  To share your thoughts, simply click on “comments” below.  (If you are reading this from your e-mail subscription to the blog, please go to our blog's website to add a comment.)

Household Income Growth (or Lack Thereof) and Museum Income

Over the next couple of posts, we’re going to be talking about income trends and how they may affect a museum’s earned income (particularly admissions and membership) and charitable gifts.  But we have two very different lenses to look through.

Today’s lens is income growth by age, taking a look at how different age groups have fared financially over the course of the last decade.  On the surface, at least until the Great Recession hit, it appeared as if most Americans were doing rather well and earning more than previous generation.  When we went deeper into the US Census's data to look at how inflation-adjusted median income changed from 2000 to 2009 for different age groups, however, we found that most Americans were worse off than their predecessors were:

If you take a look at, for example, people who are 35 to 44, the median income of householders in that age band in 2009 was about 8% less than the inflation-adjusted median income of the average householder in that same age band in 2000.  From that, you can assume that the typical 40-year-old householder in 2009 was making less than the typical 40-year-old householder in 2000.  Ditto for every ten-year-age band up to age 55.  Those who are 55 or older are doing better than those 55+ were ten years ago, and the really healthy income shift doesn’t show up until you are looking at those over 65. 

Additionally, we’ve also analyzed household debt burden by age, and we found a second financial constraint for young Americans: adults currently younger than 45 years of age have a much heavier debt burden in the form of mortgages than those over 60.  Why?  It’s all about whether they bought before the housing bubble expanded, or closer to the housing market peak prices.

Is it any wonder, then, that in our surveys we continually find that families are the audience segment constantly worried about their family budgets, are looking for high-value opportunities to entertain and engage their families, and are most likely to purchase memberships as a means of saving money?  Or that young adults under 30 are the ones most likely to think museums are just too expensive in the first place?  It should be no surprise because they all have less money to spend than the same age groups did 10 years ago. 

Looking ahead, what does this data mean for museums?

• That museums seeking to attract young adults have to be very much aware that discretionary income is tight, and even a modest admission fee may keep them away.
• Family audiences are constantly weighing what is the best value for their families.  Admission fees that total $50 or more become daunting very quickly for a family (never mind admission fees that exceed $100 for a family; and then there are the typical add-ons of food, shop purchases, etc.)  Memberships that provide reciprocal admissions at other sites, guest passes, free parking, and just a great bang for the buck do continue to be popular, however. 
• For adults under 55, philanthropy may be changing.  If incomes are down, commodity prices are increasing (among other things), the budget for charitable giving is likely shrinking, jeopardizing the pipeline of future donations as visitors, even members, become unaccustomed to making charitable gifts, and don’t have the money to do so anyway. 
• But older adults overall may be seeing more financial resilience, given their incomes, at least over the last decade, have increased.  There may be opportunities for growth in both earned income and charitable gifts with this segment (keeping in mind that not all Americans 55+ have seen income growth, just most!).

Next week, we are going to continue our examination of incomes, and take a look at aggregate earnings during the peak earning years by race and ethnicity. 

 

What do you think?  Do you see these changes in income dynamics in your generation?  How do you think it will affect your museum?  To share your thoughts, simply click on “comments” below.  (If you are reading this from your e-mail subscription to the blog, please go to our blog's website to add a comment.)

 

Interested in digging through the hard data yourself?  You can find loads of historical data on income at the US Census’s website, http://www.census.gov/hhes/www/income/data/historical/household/index.html.